Tarrant County’s primary elections saw unusually high turnout, with Democrats out-mobilizing Republicans for the second time in recent years and outpacing their party’s statewide turnout.
High turnout in the March 3 primaries can be a strong indicator of voter interest and momentum as attention shifts to the general election in November, political experts and local officials say.
Just under 26% of Tarrant’s 1.3 million registered voters participated in the March 3 primaries, according to unofficial returns from the county elections office. About 56% of those voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary.
“People are going to turn out in November,” said Keith Gaddie, a political science professor at Texas Christian University. “Angry voters are motivated voters. And right now, Democrats are really angry. That’s why you got the turnout you’ve got.”
Historically a GOP stronghold, Tarrant County has shown occasional signs of trending purple, with voters supporting a handful of Democrats at the top of the ballot during recent elections. Political analysts have long hailed the county as a “bellwether” for national elections but more recently agreed either party could win under the right circumstances.
So, has a “blue wave” washed over Tarrant?
While it’s too early to tell, the “stars really aligned” for Democratic wins this year, said Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University.
“If Democrats don’t produce a blue wave in this cycle and don’t make major gains in Texas in this cycle, then I think they’re not going to for the foreseeable future,” Wilson said.
The primary turnout is a hopeful sign for Democrats, he said, but likely not an indicator of a “slam dunk electoral rampage” for Nov. 3’s general election, which consistently has higher turnout than March elections.
Statewide, about 52% of the nearly 4.3 million Texas primary voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary’s U.S. Senate race while 48% did in the GOP primary, according to unofficial results.
Allison Campolo, chair of the Tarrant County Democratic Party, attributed her party’s turnout to well-coordinated block walking and door knocking to mobilize people to the polls. She believes Democrats also were energized by the “tactics and antics” of local Republicans such as County Judge Tim O’Hare, who did not return a request for comment.
“Voters are really ready for a change, ready to see Democrats in office, and we saw that in the primary voting numbers,” Campolo said.
The turnout in Tarrant County follows a nationwide trend over the past decade of increased voter engagement, Wilson said. He noted that the primary turnout — while high — still only represents a small fraction of registered voters. Recent years have seen combined primary turnout hover between 15% and 20%.
Primaries are often “disproportionately” influenced by activist groups — in both Republican and Democratic races — who are more plugged in and engaged with local politics, Wilson said. The November election draws a broader turnout with more diverse interests, he added.
Tim Davis, chair of the Tarrant County Republican Party, isn’t worried about what the Democratic turnout could mean for November. He views the two parties’ primaries as “apples and oranges.” He believes the Democratic ballot featured more competitive races than the Republican one.
“No, we’re not experiencing a blue wave,” Davis said. “What we’re seeing is enthusiasm among voters on their side for a race that they’ve had no equivalent for in recent history, in their Senate race.”
Anything could happen in November, Davis said. He pointed to Tarrant County primaries in 2008, which saw 200,317 Democratic voters and 101,761 GOP voters. That year, about 21% of the county’s registered voters cast Democratic ballots and 10.5% cast GOP ballots.
Despite Democrats initially out-mobilizing the GOP, then-Republican presidential candidate John McCain would go on to take 55% of Tarrant County’s vote in November to Barack Obama’s 44%.
Wilson, the political science professor, rejected Davis’ notion that Democratic turnout in the primaries wouldn’t last into November, while still acknowledging the 2008 results.
Going into March, Democrats had momentum after Taylor Rehmet flipped a historically GOP-held Texas Senate seat in a January runoff.
Wilson said he feels confident that Democrats will have “strong turnout and a fair bit of energy” in the general election.
“The wild card is how well Republicans are able to match them. If Republicans show lackluster, listless turnout, it could be a really catastrophic year for them,” Wilson said. “If, on the other hand, they’re able to generate some energy of their own — either positive energy or negative energy to counteract Democrats — then they could mitigate the losses.”
What has early voting turnout looked like in recent Tarrant County primary elections?
The day after Rehmet’s win, the county judge urged Republicans to get civically engaged and prevent losing what he called “the most important county in the entire country.”
At the local GOP’s election night watch party March 3, O’Hare said many can get complacent when their party is in control. However, he said local Republicans are going to have “a more robust ground game than we’ve ever had in Tarrant County.”
“And I’m confident — when all is said and done — in November, Tarrant County will still be a bright red flag.”
In primary elections, voters choose a Republican candidate and Democratic candidate to face off in the November election. Texas primaries are open, meaning voters are not required to register in either party to vote in a primary.
Texas GOP officials have long sought to close the primaries, which would block Democrats from voting in Republican primaries and vice versa.
Although he understands the concern around open primaries, Gaddie said he doesn’t buy the argument that Republicans could have significantly impacted Democratic turnout by voting in the opposite primary. Infiltrating another party’s primary successfully is an “exceedingly difficult coordination game to play off,” he said.
Plus, Gaddie added, both primaries saw packed races at the top of the ballot.
“Republican voters had every motivation possible to go to the Republican primary and cast their preferences,” Gaddie said. “Democratic voters had every motivation possible to vote in the Democratic primary.”
In the high-profile primaries for U.S. Senate, Tarrant County Democrats swung about 11 percentage points for U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett over Texas Rep. James Talarico, who ultimately won the party’s nomination for November. Meanwhile, Republicans gave 45% of their vote to incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and 38% to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who are now in a runoff to be the GOP’s nominee this fall.
Gaddie said the county’s Senate votes are fitting given its demographics.
Tarrant is composed mostly of communities of color. On the Democratic side, Crockett, who is Black, likely appealed more to the county’s diverse Democratic base than Talarico, who is white.
On the GOP side, statewide results saw “old-city Republicans” prefer Cornyn, who has held the seat since 2002. However, new-generation Republicans in rural communities preferred Paxton, who has painted himself as a political outsider and passionate supporter of President Donald Trump, Gaddie noted.
None of the local GOP races are going to a runoff, which Davis said indicates his party is united behind candidates. He describes primary elections as a “family fight” — one that he’s thankful is now behind him.
“We have a very united party, despite the fact that we just went through the family fight that we did,” Davis said. “Republicans are excited to move forward toward November.”
Campolo said she’s heartened by the support she witnessed Wednesday among Democratic candidates congratulating each others’ wins and conceding losses. She doesn’t see it as a loss that multiple Democratic races are going to a runoff.
“I see a lot of unity,” Campolo said of her party. “Just because we have a lot of candidates to choose from this time doesn’t mean there’s a fracturing of the party by any means.”
But she’s not taking primary turnout for granted. Democrats must “work extremely hard and stay very focused” to continue mobilizing voters to successfully flip seats in November, Campolo said.
Davis said he expects Republicans to be mobilized in the fall over fear that Tarrant County could change into a place they don’t recognize. Davis said his party’s job is now to express GOP values, convince people they’re better than what Democrats are offering, and inspire them to vote red.
“That doesn’t mean that we can rest. That doesn’t mean that we can take anything for granted,” Davis said. “Our party has made that mistake in the past, both locally, even in the state and certainly nationally.”
Cecilia Lenzen and Drew Shaw are government accountability reporters for the Fort Worth Report. Contact them at cecilia.lenzen@fortworthreport.organd drew.shaw@fortworthreport.org
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Great Job Cecilia Lenzen and Drew Shaw & the Team @ Fort Worth Report for sharing this story.
